India's manufacturing sector growth eased slightly in July, on softer increases in new orders and output, while cost pressures and demand strength led to the steepest increase in selling prices since October 2013, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) moderated slightly from 58.3 in June to 58.1 in July.
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
Automobile, apparel and electronics are among sectors that see a sales boost during the festival season, a time when investors expect gains in related stocks. This year could be different: Analysts have factored in all positives and do not expect such stocks to deliver lucrative returns. "Indian households spend across sectors like automobiles, consumer durables, and consumer staples during the festival season.
Retail inflation increased to four-month high of 5.08 per cent in June as food items, including vegetables became dearer, according to government data released on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was on a decline since January, before rising again in June. The CPI-based retail inflation was 4.8 per cent in May 2024 and 4.87 per cent in June 2023.
IndiGo share price today: IndiGo share price fell as much as 4.8 per cent to a low of Rs 4,275 per share on the BSE in Monday's intraday trade as investors booked profit in the stock post a its April-June quarter (Q1) results for financial year 2024-25 (FY25). The stock ended 1.36 per cent lower at Rs 4,430 as against a 23-points gain in the benchmark BSE Sensex. The selling also got exacerbated as the management commentary, post Q1FY25 results, highlighted that inflationary pressure could likely dent July-September (Q2FY25) performance.
IndiGo has delivered impressive operating performance in the past six quarters as it navigated cost and capacity challenges. It has managed to mitigate the impact of faulty engine-related groundings. The airline has also managed costs related to grounding, expensive secondary leasing, increasing airport charges, and pilot compensation inflation and delivered stronger yields and spreads.
As a panel of senior ministers deliberates on the need to review curbs on exports of some rice varieties, data shows that since outbound shipments saw restrictions in July-August last year, the non-basmati segment has suffered more than basmati exports. Sources said the panel is expected to soon deliberate on a few suggestions to ease the export curbs on some rice varieties due to higher-than-required stocks in the central pool. The panel, some observers feel, may also postpone the decision to ease the export curbs till a firm picture emerges on the latest kharif paddy sowing.
'Investors can consider staying invested in long duration products as there is a possibility of rate cuts in the near term.' Positive macros - lower inflation, high forex reserves and favourable demand-supply dynamics for government bonds - make a strong case for rate cuts from December, says Devang Shah, head of fixed income, Axis Mutual Fund. In an interview with Abhishek Kumar in Mumbai, Shah says this view may not hold true if commodity prices go up sharply.
The embattled Adani Group on Monday attempted to calm the market as a rout in its shares continued, saying its growth plans are intact, business plans are fully funded and it remains confident of delivering returns to shareholders. Market value of the group's seven listed companies has halved since a January 24 report by US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research alleged that Adani pulled "the largest con in corporate history" using offshore tax havens and stock manipulation. The Group has denied all allegations, calling them "malicious", "baseless" and a "calculated attack on India".
Bengaluru-based Prestige Estates Projects recently said it aims to double its annual residential sales bookings to Rs 25,000 crore by FY26 from its current markets and others such as Mumbai, Pune and National Capital Region (NCR). The company's chairman and managing director Irfan Razaq tells Raghavendra Kamath about his plans to achieve the target and outlook for the real estate market.
Debt mutual fund (MF) schemes, which witnessed relatively muted inflows in the past three years, saw a surge in investor interest in April amid election-induced volatility in the equity markets. Active debt funds garnered nearly Rs 66,000 crore net inflows in April, most at least since December 2020.
'Higher than expected inflation in the US or the European Union, faster than expected tightening by the major central banks, break out of a war in Europe, and withdrawal of portfolio equities from the emerging markets are factors which can result in equity market corrections.'
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) state of the economy report observed that any durable alignment of headline retail inflation with the target of 4 per cent could recommence in the second half of FY25 and sustain until numbers closer to the target are seen during the course of FY26, dashing hopes of any reduction in the policy repo rate in the current financial year. The report, authored by RBI staffers, including Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Patra, said though headline numbers may fall in July and August due to base effect, it is likely to reverse in September.
Unperturbed by election uncertainty, investors poured record sums into equity mutual fund (MF) schemes in May, driving India closer to a $5 trillion market capitalisation. The Rs 34,697 crore net inflows into actively managed equity funds last month surpassed the previous high of Rs 28,463 crore recorded in March 2022. In April 2024, equity schemes had garnered nearly Rs 19,000 crore.
Gold seems to be losing its glitter in India due to a rise in prices. Demand in Q2CY24 was 149.7 tonnes - a 5 per cent drop compared to 158.1 tonnes in the same period last year, according to a report by the World Gold Council (WGC). Demand by value in April-June 2024 stood at Rs 93,850 crore, up by 14 per cent compared to Rs 82,530 crore in the same period last year.
'If their allocation to certain segments have become high due to strong returns over the past three-four years, they should rebalance their portfolios and bring them in line with their long-term asset allocation.'
Snapping the two months slide, the country's merchandise exports rose marginally by 0.5 per cent to $34.58 billion in September while trade deficit narrowed to $20.78 billion. According to official data released on Wednesday, imports increased by 1.6 per cent to $55.36 billion in September compared to $54.49 billion in the year-ago period. The trade deficit, or the gap between imports and exports, was $20.8 billion during the same month last year.
Shrinking inflows and surging outflows on account of profit-booking has curtailed mutual fund (MF) investments in equities since April. The total investments made by equity MFs during the first three months of 2023-24 stands at just Rs 2,980 crore, compared with an average monthly investment of Rs 14,500 crore in 2022-23, reveals data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India. "We are seeing signs of moderation in non-systematic investment plan (SIP) contribution, which has impacted domestic fund inflows in recent months to some extent," says Kunal Vora, head-India equity research, BNP Paribas.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
Most economists expect the global economy to weaken in the coming year amid political and financial volatility, but a large majority of over 90 per cent are confident of moderate or strong growth in South Asia, notably India, a survey showed on Friday. At the same time, the outlook for China has dimmed following signs of deflationary pressures and fragility in the country's real estate market, the World Economic Forum's latest 'Chief Economists Outlook' report said. As the world grapples with political and financial volatility, almost six in 10 believe the global economic outlook will undermine progress towards meeting the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with 74 per cent saying geopolitical tensions will have the same effect.
The size of Reserve Bank's balance sheet increased by 11.08 per cent to Rs 70.47 lakh crore as on March 2024, leading to the highest-ever dividend payout to the government, according to the central bank's annual report. In actual terms, the increase was Rs 7,02,946.97 crore over Rs 63.45 lakh crore as on March 2023.
Barring the two events of elections and the Fed taper, the markets are well poised to show gradual improvement.
'Given the worries about sluggish growth, rising interest rates and likely volatility, it's quite logical to infer that the SIP route could be the preferred way of investing.'
The Nifty IT index, data shows, has outperformed the markets in each of the last four election years post the result. announcement.
'While most companies were bullish before the second wave of double-digit sales growth in FY22, that may not be the case now.'
Indian equity markets should be able to withstand inflation up to 8 per cent, said analysts at Credit Suisse Wealth Management in a recent note. Should the rate of inflation move higher than this, the valuation of Indian equities could deteriorate further, they cautioned. The fall from the peak levels has seen Nifty's 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.6 dip toward its 10-year and 5-year (pre-COVID) average of 16.9, which suggests that valuation froth of Indian equities has settled, said the Credit Suisse analysts.
The RBI is fully aware that the high-cost loans and high indebtedness of the borrowers could pose financial stability risks, if not addressed by these NBFCs. Governor Shaktikanta Das has issued a stern warning, saying the RBI is closely monitoring these areas and will not hesitate to take appropriate action, if necessary, if the culprits don't opt for self-correction. Watch out for some action, soon, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Once we break free of the idea that land is scarce, real estate is just a pile of bricks, steel, and glass. Any price surge will kick off a supply response, which kills off the possibility of sustained price appreciation, points out Ajay Shah.
Forecast of single digit growth this financial year worries analysts, as other firms have provided better outlook.
Automobile retail sales in India rose 13 per cent year on year in February with all the segments, including passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, witnessing robust offtake, dealers' body FADA said on Thursday. Overall retail sales stood at 20,29,541 units last month as compared to 17,94,866 units in the year-ago period. Passenger vehicle sales grew 12 per cent to 3,30,107 units last month as against 2,93,803 units in February 2023.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have pulled out $3.5 billion from India's equity markets so far this month. The selling comes on the back of election-induced volatility and the rotation of flows from India to China, where stocks are available at half the valuations. If the selling pressure remains at the current level, this will be the highest FPI pullout since January 2023.
High-end apartments, penthouses, and bungalows boasting amenities like swimming pools, expansive driveways, and premium interiors are becoming highly sought after.
'The demand for housing is always increasing, and so is housing shortage.'
While most analysts are expecting poor results from oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter of 2024-25 (Q1FY25) and even in the first half (H1) of FY25, GAIL (India) could be an outlier. Upstream producers, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) could do well due to strong crude and gas prices, but refiners are likely to see weak margins and the impact of frozen prices during the election period will also be negative.
Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in July touched 178,948 units, marking the highest monthly sales this financial year. This represents a 27.9 per cent increase from June, which saw 139,905 units sold, according to the Vahan data from the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways. The strong performance in July contributed to more than one million being sold in the first seven months of the calendar year.
'Valuations of midcaps and smallcaps have reached very high levels, and hence to that extent leave little margin of safety.'
India's macro finances are getting into good shape.
Several mutual funds (MFs) have recently approached the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as they renew efforts to increase their overseas investment limit. In June 2022, the capital markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) permitted MFs to invest in foreign stocks within the aggregate mandated limit of $7 billion after a correction in stocks. One of the proposals shared with the RBI is to link MFs' foreign investment limit to the country's foreign exchange reserves.
The correction seen in the stock markets thus far is insufficient and there are significant downside risks, given the way macroeconomic data is shaping up, a Nomura equity strategist said on Thursday. "The markets are trying to look through the current stress we see in the macros. There are potential risks to the market. "Our estimates assume no major impact on growth and earnings. "The market should have been at least 5 per cent lower than it is now.
Passenger vehicle wholesales in India touched a record high of 42,18,746 units in the financial year 2023-24, registering a year-on-year growth of 8.4 per cent on the back of robust demand for utility vehicles, industry body SIAM said on Friday. As per the latest data issued by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), the overall passenger vehicle dispatches stood at 38,90,114 units in fiscal year 2022-23. Two-wheeler sales were up 13.3 per cent last fiscal at 1,79,74,365 units, as compared to 1,58,62,771 units in the financial year 2022-23.
